Evidence on Wind Farm Performance Decline in the UK

Onshore wind farms in the UK have aged at about the same rate as other kinds of power station. The average wind farm has an annual load factor of about 28% when first commissioned, which declines by about 0.4 percentage points per year. After 15 years, the load factor would have fallen to 23%. This ageing does not appear to have made developers replace their farms early. Forty out of the first forty-five wind farms commissioned in the UK were still operating at this age; four had been repowered. Taking this deterioration into account raises the levelised cost of electricity by around 9% over a 24-year lifespan, discounting at 10 per cent a year. This is a summary of the peer-reviewed paper “How does wind farm performance decline with age?” published in Renewable Energy, vol. 65, pp 775-786, which is available to download from http://tinyurl.com/wind-decline

Green-Lazarsfeld's Conjecture for Generic Curves of Large Gonality

We use Green's canonical syzygy conjecture for generic curves to prove that the Green-Lazarsfeld gonality conjecture holds for generic curves of genus g, and gonality d, if $g/3<d<[g/2]+2$.Comment: 5 page

Concept-based Analysis of Surface and Structural Misfits (CASSM) Tutorial notes

Concept-based Analysis of Surface and Structural Misfits (CASSM) in a novel approach to usability analysis that focuses attention on misfits between user and system concepts. We believe that as an approach it has several desirable qualities: o It focuses on concepts rather than tasks or procedures. Consequently, it complements the majority of existing approaches to usability evaluation. In particular, it analyses conceptual misfits between user and system. o By intentionally supporting ‘sketchy’ analysis, CASSM avoids the ‘death by detail’ that plagues many evaluation techniques. CASSM analyses do not have to be complete or consistent to be useful – though of course a thorough analysis is likely to have these properties. Also, CASSM analyses are often quite succinct, compared to (for example) a Cognitive Walkthrough (Wharton et al, 1994), Heuristic Evaluation (Nielsen, 1994) or GOMS analysis (John & Kieras, 1996). o As a notation, it provides a ‘bridge’ between the core ideas underpinning work on mental models and design issues, and may thus make prior work on mental models more readily accessible to design practice. [This should be regarded as a hypothesis that has not yet been tested.] o The CASSM notation provides a relatively formal definition of many of Green’s Cognitive Dimensions (see, for example, Green, 1989; Green & Petre, 1996; Blackwell & Green 2003). In this way, it further supports assessment of a system in terms of CDs. This is discussed in detail towards the end of this document. Although the name (CASSM: Concept-based Analysis of Surface and Structural Misfits) emphasises the importance of misfits, you should be aware that there are other kinds of user–system misfits that are outside the scope of CASSM; for example, inconsistencies in procedures for similar tasks would be picked up by other techniques but are not directly addressed within CASSM. CASSM focuses on conceptual structures

Automation of Diagrammatic Proofs in Mathematics

Theorems in automated theorem proving are usually proved by logical formal proofs. However, there is a subset of problems which can also be proved in a more informal way by the use of geometric operations on diagrams, so called diagrammatic proofs. Insight is more clearly perceived in these than in the corresponding logical proofs: they capture an intuitive notion of truthfulness that humans find easy to see and understand. The proposed research project is to identify and ultimately automate this diagrammatic reasoning on mathematical theorems. The system that we are in the process of implementing will be given a theorem and will (initially) interactively prove it by the use of geometric manipulations on the diagram that the user chooses to be the appropriate ones. These operations will be the inference steps of the proof. The constructive !-rule will be used as a tool to capture the generality of diagrammatic proofs. In this way, we hope to verify and to show that the diagra..

Searching for a Solution to Program Verification=Equation Solving in CCS

International audienceUnder non-exponential discounting, we develop a dynamic theory for stopping problems in continuous time. Our framework covers discount functions that induce decreasing impatience. Due to the inherent time inconsistency, we look for equilibrium stopping policies, formulated as fixed points of an operator. Under appropriate conditions, fixed-point iterations converge to equilibrium stopping policies. This iterative approach corresponds to the hierarchy of strategic reasoning in game theory and provides “agent-specific” results: it assigns one specific equilibrium stopping policy to each agent according to her initial behavior. In particular, it leads to a precise mathematical connection between the naive behavior and the sophisticated one. Our theory is illustrated in a real options model

Scoping analytical usability evaluation methods: A case study

Analytical usability evaluation methods (UEMs) can complement empirical evaluation of systems: for example, they can often be used earlier in design and can provide accounts of why users might experience difficulties, as well as what those difficulties are. However, their properties and value are only partially understood. One way to improve our understanding is by detailed comparisons using a single interface or system as a target for evaluation, but we need to look deeper than simple problem counts: we need to consider what kinds of accounts each UEM offers, and why. Here, we report on a detailed comparison of eight analytical UEMs. These eight methods were applied to it robotic arm interface, and the findings were systematically compared against video data of the arm ill use. The usability issues that were identified could be grouped into five categories: system design, user misconceptions, conceptual fit between user and system, physical issues, and contextual ones. Other possible categories such as User experience did not emerge in this particular study. With the exception of Heuristic Evaluation, which supported a range of insights, each analytical method was found to focus attention on just one or two categories of issues. Two of the three "home-grown" methods (Evaluating Multimodal Usability and Concept-based Analysis of Surface and Structural Misfits) were found to occupy particular niches in the space, whereas the third (Programmable User Modeling) did not. This approach has identified commonalities and contrasts between methods and provided accounts of why a particular method yielded the insights it did. Rather than considering measures such as problem count or thoroughness, this approach has yielded insights into the scope of each method

Experimental and numerical investigation on micro deep drawing process of stainless steel 304 foil using flexible tools

Flexible forming technology provides significant application potential in various areas of manufacturing, particularly at a miniaturized level. Simplicity, versatility of process and feasibility of prototyping makes forming techniques by using flexible tools suitable for micro sheet metal forming. This paper reports the results of FE simulation and experimental research on micro deep drawing processes of stainless steel 304 sheets utilising a flexible die. The study presents a novel technique in which an initial gap (positive or negative) is adopted between an adjustment ring and a blank holder employed in the developed forming system. The blank holder is moveable part and supported by a particular spring that provides the required holding force. The forming parameters (anisotropy of SS 304 material, initial gap, friction conditions at various contact interfaces and initial sheet thickness) related with the forming process are in details investigated. The FE models are built using the commercial code Abaqus/Standard. The numerical predictions reveal the capability of the proposed technique on producing micro metallic cups with high quality and large aspect ratio. To verify these results, number of micro deep drawing experiments is conducted using a special set up developed for this purpose. As providing a fundamental understanding is required for the commercial development of this novel forming technique, hence the optimization of the initial gap in accordance with each sheet thickness, thickness distribution and punch force/stroke relationship are detected